How Presidential Elections Affect the Housing Market

What Happens to Home Sales in an Election Year?

It's common to see a slight seasonal drop in home sales during the month leading up to a U.S. Presidential election (October to November). This is often driven by consumer hesitation as buyers and sellers await election outcomes.

But here's the key takeaway: this dip is short-lived. In fact, history shows a strong rebound after the election is over.

Did You Know? After 9 of the last 11 presidential elections, home sales increased in the year that followed.

Do Home Prices Drop During Election Years?

If you’re waiting for a market dip, here’s what you should know: home prices rarely fall during election years.

As expert housing analyst Ryan Lundquist says:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

This means current price trends—whether rising or moderating—are likely to stay the course, regardless of political changes.

The data backs this up: After 7 of the last 8 presidential elections, home prices rose in the following year. The only exception was 2008–2009, during the housing crash, which was an economic anomaly, not an election effect.

Do Mortgage Rates Fall Around Elections?

One of the most surprising trends involves mortgage rate drops during election years. According to Freddie Mac data:

• Mortgage rates declined from July to November in 8 of the past 11 election cycles.

• In 2024, we’re already seeing this trend begin.

Experts forecast that mortgage rates will continue to ease in late 2024, boosting affordability and purchasing power for buyers.

Should You Delay Buying or Selling in an Election Year?

Here’s what leading economist Lisa Sturtevant of Bright MLS says:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

That means you don’t need to delay your real estate plans due to election concerns. Whether you're buying or selling, history shows the market remains resilient and strong.

Final Thoughts: Stay Informed, Not Paralyzed

While political cycles can spark uncertainty, election year housing trends consistently show only minor and temporary effects on real estate activity.

If you're thinking about buying or selling this year, focus on market fundamentals—not just headlines.

Let’s connect to discuss:

• What your local market trends show

• How mortgage rates may affect your strategy

• When might be the best time to make your move

Need expert real estate guidance during this election cycle?Let’s talk. I’ll help you make an informed decision based on data—not political noise.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a licensed mortgage or financial advisor for personal guidance.

Other helpful articles:

• Real Estate & Mortgage Insights: Ben Delorge

• Real Estate Markets During an Election Year